(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.1S 69.7E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302055Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
A POCKET OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 91S IS CURRENTLY
IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL START TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.