国外新冠（2.86的直系后代JN.1）是不是爆了？
https://www.zhihu.com/people/kuma-san-92
https://github.com/sars-cov-2-variants/lineage-proposals/issues/606

纯引用，摸着白头鹰过河。
【US modelling: Another week and JN.1's fit has actually accelerated. Its weekly absolute doubling, and its relative advantage over other variants, remains remarkably consistent. It should have passed HV.1 roughly today and be at 26% of infections now. Even more crazily, it's on pace to be at 80% relative prevalence within a month. This includes all numbered variants with any growth advantage over HV.1, and it's almost unheard of for one single lineage to become so dominant. XBB.1.5 (non-*) peaked at around 54%, BQ.1 at ~11%, and BA.5.2.1 at ~22% for instance. Even BA.1.1 only reached 68%. JN.1 does have unnumbered sub-lineages, and it's possible once those are backdated they will break it up.】

最最重要的是这句：
【【【A single-variant surge is significant because it's completely unbuffered.】】】
单一变体的激增意义重大，因为它完全没有缓冲。
即使只有两种生长速率略有不同的变体，也会起到相互缓冲的作用。
——也就是有可能从【中速】升级到【快速】的范畴。

摸着白头鹰过河的两张图（引用）：JN.1现在是每周翻倍的纯指数增长。

白头鹰：所有变体中，仅JN.1就有望在12月11日左右超过9月2日的峰值。

（20 seqs，7 本土）-->
【（13本土，18输入，5输出）】

虽然2.86和JN.1在国内引起关注，但我们现在依然刚刚度过xg“平静期”：https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/671661954
参加星话大白的公众号投票结果，现在相当于国庆前一周的结果。
其实你看bj某控的呼吸道传染病里面，流感依然是最多的，你就知道了。

支持楼主